semifinal preview: san diego wavé vs ol reign
Two horrid scenarios existed on the NWSL Shield winner’s side of the bracket.
Scenario 1: facing OL Reign, a team Wavé have never beaten in ANY competition, while playing against the destiny buff of Megan Rapinoe’s farewell tour.
Scenario 2: a playoff Chanclásico against the hottest team in the league where they have a chance to knock out SDWFC and lift the trophy in our house.
Nightmare scenario 2 seemed a likely possibility. On June 17 (happy bday ama!), Angel City came to Snapdragon without a win in their previous 5 league matches. San Diego hadn’t seen a loss in its last 5. It was a derby of forms going in opposite directions.
Angel City won that match 2-1 and started an 11-game stretch where they only lost one match, ending the season with a statement 5-1 win over the Portland Thorns. They were on fire. They looked scary.
Thankfully they peaked in their last match and all that came of the run was handing Casey Stoney’s Wave their first trophy and an early exit from the playoffs for that silly crypto club, word to @suricidal.
OL Reign’s 1-0 win over ACFC was their first playoff win since 2015 (4 appearances*). Lights too bright for the squad from Lumen Field Library?
*not counting 2020 season, special tournament format
Numbers vs OL Paign
Our beloved Wavé are 0-2-6 all-time against OL Reign in all competitions, with 4 of those losses coming in 2023. It’s a brutal matchup. Reign’s exceptionally talented midfield exploits and runs circles around SDWFC’s mids almost every time. Bethany Balcer has started in 7 of these meetings and has 4 goals, most by any player in this H2H.
Yet despite the bad results in 2023, San Diego’s looked better against them in their two league matches. The 2 losses include a tough 1-0 match in Seattle (Olivia Van der Jagt, 95th) and a 2-1 loss at the Snap (Balcer brace), both of which Wave had the higher xG (by 0.3 in each). It also included a clear penalty VAR decided to ignore.
FALTA ARBITRO!
Here’s the optimistic stuff: this will (potentially) be the first time OL Reign see a Wave XI with Jaedyn Shaw at the 10 and a healthy centre-back pairing of Abby Dahlkemper and Naomi Girma. SDWFC have conceded 1 goal in the last 4 games Dahlkemper and Girma have started alongside each other (3 consecutive shutouts). Wave have not lost a match Dahlkemper has started since returning from injury this season.
Prediction time!
No. No silly predictions. The BYE/3-week break is too much of an unpredictable force.
I would like to see Amirah Ali get some serious minutes though. She’s found herself in clear scoring opportunities in both league matches against OL Reign this year and I'm hoping on a third chance being a charm.
As for players coming off the recent the international break, Girma is Girma, Alex Morgan missed another penalty (but has found the net with club so who cares), Shaw had an incredible half in Game 2 vs Colombia at the Snap, and Emily van Egmond left Australia’s camp early to get set for the semifinal. They’re ready.
For the degenerates, none of their 4 league head-to-head matches (4) has seen a team win by more than a goal, and only once has there been more that 2 total goals scored. We are team under 2.5 Total Goals.
Lastly, the funniest and most San Diego sports outcome would be Wavé getting their first ever win against OL Reign only to face Gotham FC, a team they’ve never lost against (4-0-0, GD +9), and having the favor returned.
Note: wanted to get a season recap out after winning the shield to build towards this matchup, but will probably do a longer piece once the season is done. Instead of doing a full season breakdown, it will highlight important moments in the season and have some player accolades, along with team needs for 2024. If you follow @_dalewave on Twitter, you’ll know who will be lobbied for 😜 .
